Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts
By
Annie Duke
I wasn’t sure that I would enjoy the book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts because its author is a former poker champion and trust me, I am not good at poker. I was pleasantly surprised. Duke tells us that to deal with uncertainty, acknowledge the uncertainty and then rely on a good process to help guide you through the decision. The ultimate outcome may still not be what we want or expect but knowing that we thought the situation through gives us confidence that we were on the right track.
She reminds us that it is easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. How many times have you rated someone else’s performance after you know they failed? Would you have rated the person differently if you understood the thinking behind that person’s decision?
Duke also tells us to stop blaming bad luck when things don’t go our way. If we step back and look at our process, how did that play into the negative outcome? What I most appreciated was that Duke reminds us that it is OK to say, “I don’t know”. Too often we are afraid to say that we don’t know the answer to a question – especially in a business situation.
Duke offers a unique perspective on decision-making and Thinking in Bets is a great and interesting read.
